Analyzing International Trade Outlooks for British Industry

Trading companies were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, leaving out any seasonal trading. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Almost a 3rd (31%) of trading companies reported that their turnover had reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

Nevertheless, the motions are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the greatest percentage reporting that turnover reduced in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 portion point rise from December 2025) the other services market (45%) the arts, entertainment and leisure industry (40%) Roughly 16% of trading companies reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point boost compared to December 2025.

For trading businesses with 10 or more employees, 33% reported that their turnover had actually decreased, which was broadly stable compared to December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) services reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 percentage points compared to December 2025. Usually, the proportion of businesses reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of business.

The exception to this was the percentage for organizations with 250 or more staff members, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading companies were asked how they anticipate their turnover to change in the coming month. This can then be used to predict how the business's turnover will really alter as soon as that calendar month concludes.

Accessing Business Funding in the 2026 UK Economy

Trends in between anticipated turnover and real turnover have actually broadly moved in the very same direction, the motions for expectations tend to be bigger. Caution should be taken when translating expectations concerns, as the staff members reacting on behalf of companies might not have complete oversight of all of their company's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in five (21%) trading organizations anticipate their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 however was broadly steady compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading businesses expecting a boost in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported an actual increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a minor pessimism in organizations expectations.

The patterns have actually broadly followed each other considering that the concerns were introduced in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the percentage of services anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Bigger services were more likely to anticipate an increase in turnover in March, with the proportion varying from 20% for companies with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational functions, some action options have been removed. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Care ought to be taken when analyzing expectations questions, as the workers responding on behalf of services might not have full oversight of all of their business's future expectations. "." represents data not yet offered.

Strategic Analysis Into UK Management Dynamics

The percentage of trading services that anticipated a decrease in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported an actual decline in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of companies expecting turnover to decrease for a particular month ahead of time has stayed considerably lower than the proportion of services reporting a real reduction in that month considering that April 2022.

Expectations for turnover to reduce have regularly followed the exact same pattern, as actual reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading businesses were asked what challenges, if any, were impacting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading services reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.

This is broadly stable compared with early January 2026 and 2 portion points down compared to a year back. For trading businesses with 10 or more staff members, cost of labour was the most frequently reported difficulty, at 36%. This was broadly steady compared to early January 2026. Organizations with 10 to 49 staff members were most likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than services with 250 or more workers (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading companies with 10 or more employees suggested that they were not currently experiencing any turnover challenges in early February 2026. More details on financial efficiency, including all response choices categorised by market and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.